Sample data

Free tool

Probability.

Finish above, finish below, touch along the way.

Finish above strike79%
Finish below strike21%
Touch before expiry42%

How it works

Finish probabilities come from a lognormal model at the implied vol you enter, with a 4% rate. Probability of touch is approximately twice the chance of finishing beyond the strike, capped at 100%: a stock that ends past a level had to cross it, and about as many cross and come back.

Educational calculator, not a recommendation. Options involve risk.

Score it with your own rules.

Score it with your own rules